Aemond Is Already Positioning Against Aegon
THE THEORY
Aemond views Aegon's coronation not as a settlement but as an opening position, and he is already constructing the internal architecture that would allow him to govern from behind or beneath a king he considers illegitimate. His private pitch to Criston Cole before the coronation is not a confession of frustration but an act of recruitment, seeding an alliance that runs parallel to Aegon's authority from the moment it is established. The most dangerous threat to Aegon's reign is already inside his own faction, and Aemond is not waiting for circumstances to create the opportunity.
How This Theory Works
Aemond is not positioning to serve his brother. He is positioning to replace him, and every action he takes in this episode is legible only through that lens. When Aemond tells Criston Cole that he is the one who studies, trains, and rides the largest dragon in the world, he is not venting frustration. He is making a case. That speech is a private pitch for a throne he has not yet been offered, delivered to the one knight whose allegiance could matter most in any internal Green succession struggle. The theory approaches but will not fully say what this scene implies: Aemond does not want to be recognized eventually. He wants to be recognized now, by Cole specifically, before the coronation makes the argument harder to make. He is recruiting.
Aegon's own words sharpen this. He states plainly that he has no wish to rule and is not suited for the role, a genuine portrait of a man who would rather vanish into the brothels of Flea Bottom than sit on the Iron Throne. Aemond's fury at hearing this is the clearest signal in the episode. He is not angry because Aegon is shirking duty. He is angry because Aegon is squandering something Aemond covets and cannot possess, and the man doing the squandering does not even understand what he is throwing away. That fury is not grief. It is contempt sharpened by a specific kind of humiliation: being passed over for someone who does not even want the prize.
The structural move follows from the psychological one. Aemond volunteers to search for the missing Aegon alongside Cole, the man he has just privately auditioned for a different allegiance. At the Grand Sept, the two of them ambush the Cargyll brothers and seize Aegon before Otto's agents can reach him. Controlling who delivers the king controls who the king owes. But the deeper point is not about leverage over Aegon. It is about what Aemond is building with Cole independent of any authority Aegon will nominally hold. Every act of loyalty Aemond performs in service of his brother's coronation simultaneously consolidates a parallel power structure in which Aemond is the center and Aegon is the occasion. The throne is occupied. The question Aemond is already answering is: occupied by whose permission?
Is this theory convincing?
Key Evidence
Aemond's Direct Kingship Self-Pitch
Aemond tells Criston Cole that it is he who studies history and philosophy, trains with the sword, and rides the largest dragon in the world — framing these as explicit qualifications for a throne being handed to his brother instead.
Aegon's Explicit Refusal to Rule
Aegon states directly that he has no wish to rule, no taste for duty, and is not suited for kingship, providing Aemond with a standing grievance that the better candidate was passed over.
Aemond Volunteers to Retrieve Aegon
Aemond volunteers himself to accompany Criston Cole in searching for the missing Aegon, giving him direct influence over who physically delivers the future king — and what leverage that creates.
Grand Sept Ambush and Seizure
Aemond and Criston ambush the Cargyll brothers outside the Grand Sept and take possession of Aegon before Otto's men can, establishing Aemond as the agent who controls the king's delivery rather than Otto.
Aemond's Incensed Reaction to Reluctance
When Aegon expresses his unwillingness to be king, Aemond becomes visibly incensed — a reaction that reads less as frustration with duty and more as fury that a coveted prize is being refused by someone who doesn't want it.
Dragon Size as Kingship Claim
Aemond explicitly cites his bond with Vhagar, the largest living dragon, as part of his argument for why he would be a more suitable king — invoking the Targaryen logic that dragonpower confers legitimacy.
Private Alliance With Criston Cole
Aemond's confession of ambition to Criston Cole — the knight Alicent has just elevated to Lord Commander of the Kingsguard — seeds a potential internal alliance within the Green faction that runs parallel to Aegon's nominal authority.
Other Theories for S1E09
Erryk's Conscience Becomes Rhaenys's Exit
Erryk's rescue of Rhaenys is not heading anywhere specific.
Alicent's Ignorance Was Otto's Most Sophisticated Weapon
Otto Hightower ran an active coup apparatus for years before Viserys died, and the conspiracy's most deliberately engineered feature was Alicent's complete exclusion from it.
Mysaria Uses Aegon as Political Bargaining Chip
Mysaria's demand that Otto shut down the child fighting rings was not the point of the exchange.
Beesbury Names the Crime No One Will Investigate
The Green council's coup rests on a charge its members never rebut: Lyman Beesbury's argument that a king well the night before does not reverse thirty years of succession policy on his deathbed with only the new heir's mother as witness.
Cole Kills for Alicent, Not the Crown
Criston Cole does not serve the Green faction.
Rhaenys's Mercy Is a Power Play That Guarantees the War
Rhaenys withholds Meleys's fire not from loyalty to Rhaenyra or scruple about kinslaying, but from a cold, premeditated act of self-assertion by a woman who has already learned what Westerosi power does to female claimants, and who has decided to manage this war rather than serve in it.
Mysaria Undersold Aegon to Protect Something Else
Mysaria's decision to trade Aegon for the closure of child fighting pits was not a failure to press her advantage but a deliberate refusal to enter the court's economy of power and debt.
Helaena's Line Predicts the Throne's Fate
Helaena's line 'if one possesses a thing, the other will take it away' is not oblique character texture but a directional prophecy with a specific implied outcome: Rhaenyra will take the Iron Throne from Aegon, and the verb 'take' demands an agent, a deliberate act, and a victor rather than stalemate or mutual destruction.