Alys Rivers Killed Grover Tully on Purpose
THE THEORY
Alys Rivers orchestrated Grover Tully's death to manufacture a political outcome she had already promised Daemon as prophecy, converting herself from counselor to hidden architect of the Riverlands campaign. Her two-stage method combined physical access to a dying man with the psychological conditioning of her only witness, ensuring Daemon would interpret the result as fate rather than murder. The theory's hardest claim is that Alys is not working toward Daemon's victory but toward an objective of her own for which Daemon's conquest is merely the instrument.
How This Theory Works
Alys Rivers is not serving Daemon. She is using him. When Daemon pressed her on the Riverlords' refusal to bend without House Tully's blessing, she told him to do nothing and wait three days for the winds to shift. Grover Tully, the obstacle, then died on schedule. Alys had already departed for Riverrun, ostensibly to treat him. The gap between 'healer visiting a sick lord' and 'sick lord dies on schedule' is where this theory lives.
The mechanism Alys uses is twofold. Externally, she times her visit to Riverrun with surgical precision, arriving when Grover is vulnerable. Internally, she has already reshaped Daemon's psychology enough that he accepts her counsel without demanding explanation. She calls an owl to her hand before delivering her three-day prophecy, framing political calculation as supernatural foreknowledge. She meets Daemon at the godswood, a location already charged in his visions. She names his anger as the source of his blindness before he has articulated the problem himself. Each move is designed to make him receptive and compliant rather than skeptical, and it works because Daemon's ego, which makes him resist everyone else, has been reframed by Alys as the very thing she is helping him transcend.
Alys constructed the entire sequence: counsel Daemon to wait, remove the obstacle herself, return the outcome to him as prophecy fulfilled. His weeping at the news of Grover's death is not the response of a conqueror. It is the response of a man who believes fortune has finally chosen him. Alys has made herself the hidden author of that fortune. The Riverlands campaign is less Daemon's conquest than her design, and she has ensured he will never suspect it, because the proof of her manipulation is also the proof, in his mind, of her loyalty.
Is this theory convincing?
Key Evidence
Three-Day Prophecy Fulfilled Exactly
Alys told Daemon to do nothing and wait because 'in three days time, the winds will shift,' and Grover Tully died within that window, fulfilling the prophecy precisely as she stated it.
Alys Travels to Riverrun to Treat Grover
Alys departed Harrenhal for Riverrun specifically to treat the ailing Lord Grover Tully, placing her at the scene of his death immediately before the political shift Daemon needed.
Daemon's Emotional Collapse at the News
When Daemon learned of Grover Tully's death, he wept with happiness, a reaction that reveals how completely his agency and hope had been surrendered to Alys's management of events.
Owl Summoned Before Prophecy Delivered
Alys called an owl to her hand immediately before telling Daemon the winds would shift in three days, framing her counsel as supernatural foreknowledge rather than political calculation.
Alys Names Daemon's Weakness Unprompted
At the godswood, Alys told Daemon that older powers governed Harrenhal and that his anger was causing a blindness that prevented him from seeing them, naming his vulnerabilities before he articulated them.
Tully's Death as Political Prerequisite
Alys explicitly told Daemon he needed House Tully to control the Riverlands, and when he noted Grover still lived, she advised patience rather than force, framing his death as a condition she would manage.
Daemon Yields to Alys Where He Yields to No One
Despite Daemon's habitual defiance of counsel from Rhaenyra and her advisors, he repeatedly deferred to Alys's guidance at Harrenhal, indicating she has achieved a hold over him that others have not.
Other Theories for S2E06
Mysaria Weaponizes Hunger Against the Greens
Mysaria is running a coordinated two-stage operation that inverts the political meaning of Rhaenyra's own blockade: her agents seed the taverns of Flea Bottom with messaging that Aemond feasts while commoners starve, then food boats arrive under Rhaenyra's banner to ensure relief is credited to the Blacks.
Aemond's Purge Is Larys's Harvest: How Absolute Rule Builds Its Own Blind Spot
Aemond is not filling a power vacuum; he is deliberately manufacturing one, removing every institutional check on his authority in a sequence too coherent to be reactive.
Seasmoke Runs a Two-Condition Screen the Crown Cannot Pass
Seasmoke's selection logic requires both Velaryon blood and the absence of presumptive claiming: a dual criterion that operates entirely outside royal authority.
Aemond's Coldness Is Childhood Wound, Not Politics
Aemond does not know that his removal of Alicent is a personal sentence.
Dragon Seeds Will Undermine Rhaenyra's Legitimacy
Rhaenyra's dragon seed program will succeed militarily while simultaneously destroying the ideological premise of her claim.
Rhaena Is Being Handed Sheepstealer
Lady Jeyne Arryn's 'alas, still wild' is an invitation, not a warning, and Rhaena is the intended recipient.
Aegon Remembers Everything and Fears Aemond
Aegon is performing amnesia about Rook's Rest because he remembers enough to know Aemond tried to kill him, and saying so while bedridden and surrounded by Aemond's allies would finish the job.
Otto Hightower Is Deliberately Staying Away
Otto Hightower's silence across every channel simultaneously is not absence but strategy: he has privately concluded that the Green cause under Aemond is unrecoverable, and he is preserving his distance from that failure so he can negotiate or reattach himself to whatever outcome survives.